Your Odds of Getting Into London Marathon Are Brutal — Here's the Data

Getting into a World Marathon Major is, for most runners, a numbers game before it's a training plan. The eight Majors (Tokyo, Boston, London, Cape Town from 2027, Sydney, Berlin, Chicago and New York City) all use different entry systems, and the odds swing wildly between them.

The Odds, Roughly

These move year to year, but recent cycles give a reasonable picture:

• London: the toughest draw of any Major — around 1.3–1.5% from a record-breaking applicant pool exceeding 1.3 million for the 2027 race.
• New York City: similarly brutal, roughly 1% from 240,000+ applicants, spread across NYC-local, national and international pools.
• Tokyo: around 10%.
• Berlin: historically in the 20–30% range depending on the year.
• Chicago: moved to a lottery system in 2023; recent cycles have landed around 25–40%.
• Sydney: the newest Major (joined 2025) and currently the most forgiving open ballot, historically 33–44%.
• Boston: no lottery at all — entry is by qualifying time only, with the actual cutoff typically running several minutes faster than the published standard once demand is accounted for.

Beyond the Ballot

Every Major offers routes around the pure lottery:

• Time qualifiers: Boston, Berlin, Chicago and NYC all offer guaranteed entry for runners who beat published qualifying standards — though the real cutoff often runs tighter than the posted time.
• Charity places: typically require a fundraising commitment from roughly $1,500–$5,000 depending on the race, higher for London and Boston specifically.
• Tour operators: official partners sell guaranteed-entry travel packages, generally the most expensive route in but the most reliable.
• Club and legacy pathways: some Majors (London especially) reserve blocks of guaranteed spots for national athletics club members or previous finishers.

Application Windows

Timing varies by race and shifts slightly year to year, so always check the official page close to the window — but as a rough pattern: Berlin's ballot typically runs late September through early November; London's opens shortly after the current year's race and stays open about a week; NYC's runs in the first quarter of the year; Chicago's follows a similar early-year window.

Practical Strategy

Applying every single year compounds your odds over time even at low single-race probabilities — a 1.5% shot repeated across five years isn't the same as a 1.5% shot once. If your goal is genuinely just to run a Major (rather than one specific city), Sydney and Tokyo currently offer meaningfully better single-year odds than London or NYC. And if a charity commitment is financially realistic for you, it remains the single most reliable non-time-qualified way into any of the toughest draws.

Daily Chore Take

Don't build your whole season around one specific ballot result you don't control. Apply to your first-choice Major, but pick a real backup race with guaranteed or near-guaranteed entry so a "no" in February doesn't leave you without a goal race for the year.